Takeaways from Two Years of Political Chaos in Minnesota

Why does everything in Minnesota seem to be unprecedented? Numerous local happenings have dominated international headlines over the past two years, bleeding back into state level politics. For politicos watching the Minnesota legislature and trying to decipher what all this political chaos means for their respective policies and priorities, it’s been a lot to handle. 

So after two years of the unexpected – from an evenly tied Minnesota House, the tragic political assasination of Melissa Hortman and her husband, billions in fraud, waste and abuse in health and human services, a school shooting that took the lives of innocent children, and a massive grassroots revolt around Operation Metro Surge, what were the takeaways from Minnesota’s state political scene and what does it mean heading into the fall election?

Here are some highlights you should know. 

Will Economic or Social Issues Win the Hearts and Minds of Voters and Policymakers?

Inflation is crushing families and taxpayers as everything from the cost of groceries to tab fees to property taxes continue to rise. On top of that, layoffs and job market uncertainty around the implementation of AI are leaving many people feeling uncertain about the economy and long-term financial stability. 

And then there is the waste, fraud and abuse that has cost Minnesota taxpayers billions of dollars and counting. What started as the Feeding Our Future debacle quickly turned into scandal after scandal as more programs and coverups showed massive fraud within state government programs. 

These scandals and ongoing fraud cases, as well as the burden of inflation on families and small businesses, are what Republicans are counting on heading into the election to win over voters. That’s reflected in the issues they fought for in the legislature over the past two years. 

Meanwhile, Democrats are leaning into the social issues that have fueled international attention. Pushback on the Trump Administration’s immigration crackdown with Operation Metro Surge sparked mass protests across communities, and the DFL believes that – mixed with the President’s sinking approval ratings – will continue to inspire voters into the fall. 

After the Annunciation school shooting and the assasination of Speaker Hortman, gun control issues were also at the top of the DFL to-do list. An end of session sit-in by Democrats, who decried Speaker Lisa Demuth and the GOP’s refusal to allow gun bills onto the floor, demonstrate that this is another issue they think they can use to win the hearts and minds of voters in November. 

What Did A Split Government Yield for Minnesotans?

With such a closely divided legislature (a tied House and a one-seat DFL majority in the Senate), compromise was the name of the game over the past two years. Both parties did some political grandstanding on issues important to their base – and that they thought played well with their respective constituencies – but at the end of the day, only compromise resulted in legislation making it to the governor’s desk. 

For those working in public affairs and lobbying, defense was often the best path to victory at the Capitol. Having even a few members of each party join to oppose an issue could help stop it dead in its tracks.

But the real question is – will that same defensive strategy play well going into next year?

What to Expect in 2027 and Why Early Preparation is Key.

There is still A LOT of time between now and November, but my early crystal ball predictions for Minnesota are that the days of closely divided or tied government is likely over. The House, the Senate and the Governor’s office are all up for grabs. That, paired with a huge amount of retirements in the House and Senate, mean there will be a lot of new faces, personalities and politics come January. 

For businesses, nonprofits and associations who may have successfully stopped an issue this year, or who may have fallen just short of gaining the support needed for passage of their issue? Now is no time to slow down. 

Double down now on public affairs strategies that can give you a head start next year. Coalition building, press engagement, messaging development, and doing the work early will get your issue out there ahead of session. If candidates are hearing about your issue on the campaign trail, if candidates looking for PAC dollars from your organization know where you stand on an issue, if your policy priority pops up in digital ads or in the press, and if there is community sentiment for or against your issue heading into next year – you will give you a much stronger chance of winning. 

I expect things to move quickly next session, and legislation that received hearings this year but didn’t make the finish line could be fast-tracked in 2027. 

For organizations navigating the Capitol, a strong Minnesota public affairs strategy will matter more than ever heading into 2027.

Want help planning your public affairs strategy in Minnesota? Reach out to me at ct@k2andcompany.com!