What should business groups, trade associations, non-profits and anyone with a vested interest in Minnesota expect from the 2025 legislative session?
I spent almost a decade at the Minnesota Legislature, so when lobbyists, legislators and anyone who even remotely understands how our state government works says this session will be unlike any other – believe them. Chaos, dysfunction, and a whole lot of fun is before us. Get ready.
After two years of the DFL trifecta – where we had sizable Democrat majorities and even bigger surpluses – legislation, new taxes, new regulations and a whole host of policy changes were able to fly through the Capitol with relatively little resistance. But things swung back closer to the middle after the 2024 election. Now, we’re seeing essential ties and deadlocks in both the House and Senate, court cases, election challenges and more, throwing everything into disarray. What is going to get done this year, and how is it all breaking down?
Who is in charge of the House?
Let’s start with the House. The 2024 election results ended with a 67-67 tie and even split between the two major parties. That led House leaders DFL leader Hortman and GOP leader Demuth to come to a tentative power sharing agreement. Each committee would have a GOP and DFL co-chair, with equal member representation for both parties. They were still working out who would be Speaker of the House.
But peace was not to last.
Post election, a judge ruled that the Democrat elected to represent District 40B did not live in the district. Governor Walz called a special election for late January to fill that seat (and the MN GOP and MN Voters Alliance are challenging the timing of that election in the State Supreme Court right now), but either way, that short vacancy gives Republicans a temporary one-seat majority. Republicans plan to make Demuth Speaker, and throw out the power sharing agreement.
In response, the DFL are threatening to not show up when session begins, not giving the House a quorum to do any business. Whether or not they follow through, or how these optics play out in the state (especially since they still plan to collect a paycheck) remains to be seen. Over the weekend, the DFL also held a secret swearing in ceremony that brings up more questions around legal legitimacy.
But if that’s not enough, another contested race where DFL Rep. Tabke only won by 14 votes, but 20 votes were destroyed before being tabulated, is also being challenged in court. House Republicans say they will deny him being sworn in.
Expect continued chaos as session starts this week, and dynamics to change day to day.
Where do a special election and felony burglary charges leave the Senate?
In the Senate, which was not up for election last year, the DFL holds a one seat majority – but that is also in flux. Sadly, a Minneapolis State Senator passed away in late December from cancer, leaving a vacancy for her seat. That special election is expected in late January, providing for a window where the Senate is also tied.
But on top of that, another DFL Senator – Nicole Mitchell – is expected to go on trial for burglary later this month. She has asked a judge to hold off on the hearing until after session. If her hearing goes forward soon, this could create windows where the GOP have a majority, or again the Senate is tied 33-33.
Over the weekend, the GOP and DFL leadership came to a temporary power sharing agreement that is to remain in effect while they are tied 33-33. But the Senator Mitchell court case could still throw everything into chaos again.
What priorities are ahead of us this session?
A shrinking surplus and a projected $5.7 billion structural imbalance for future budget years (aka a deficit) means that legislators will likely be more cautious about new spending this session. Republicans have also said new taxes are not on the table. What comes out of final deals with such close party counts remains to be seen. From energy issues to health care, read the top issues we’re monitoring here.
Why it’s important to engage now on issues, even if the start of the session will be chaotic.
January is expected to be a slow month with much uncertainty at the Minnesota Legislature, but once things settle down and both sides find agreement, things could move quickly. If you have an issue you are looking to move (or stop) this session, building diverse coalitions, getting in front of lawmakers from both parties, engaging media, and building robust messaging to break through the noise now is vital.
With so many warring interests both politically and among diverse stakeholders at the Capitol, doing the leg work now to set your goals up for success in the 2025 legislative session will be more critical than ever.
Chelsea Thompson, Vice President of Public Affairs