Illinois may not have a lot of competitive campaigns in 2026, but the bills that pass in this cycle could play a major role in what we’ll hear from Democratic candidates looking forward to 2028 and the next Presidential campaign.
Illinois remains a solidly blue legislature, though Republicans touted the victory of retaining the same number of seats in 2024 despite being outspent many times over in legislative races across the state. This balance, combined with broadly popular support for Gov. Pritzker as he campaigns for a third term, would indicate that we will see a number of performative bills to bolster the governor’s reelection campaign and potentially propel him into the 2028 Democratic presidential primary.
Performance aside, there are a few mainstays that will remain central to the debate in 2026. The state budget, as in all states, is a hotly contested debate, and while Gov. Pritzker touts balanced budgets every year of his governorship; this will be the second time he will have to accomplish that task without the federal government’s support of COVID dollars. Those served as a supplement that allowed the governor to “balance” the budget without major cuts, but starting last year and entering 2026, Gov. Pritzker was forced to make hard choices that divided his caucus. Some of the big sticking points will be funding for public transit, any other tax increases like we saw last year on sportsbooks, and pensions – the ultimate sword of Damocles that continues to hang over Illinois. I would expect any divisions among Democrats in the legislature and the Governor’s Mansion to be handled more behind closed doors to maintain the outward unity of a party looking to seat their second president from the state this decade, but divisions will remain.
Another festering issue as the year comes to a close is, surprisingly, the Chicago Bears. The Bears have sought tax concessions from both the state of Illinois to build a new stadium in Arlington Heights and the city of Chicago to remain and renovate the area around Soldier Field. Both efforts have been rebuffed, in one case adding insult to injury as Gov. Pritzker took a similar tax proposal, removed the Bears and applied it to mega-project developments instead – inviting in large construction projects like data centers to the state. As of December 17th, the Bears have added a new wrinkle to the conversation – they are now looking to tax-friendly Indiana as the potential future home of the team, a departure that would mark a dot on the exclamation point on businesses that have left Illinois in the last decade.
Ultimately, with a key midterm election on the horizon, the governor up for reelection and a potential presidential campaign looming in 2028, expect to see Democrats in Illinois outwardly unified and passing proposals that will invigorate their base and attempt to solidify the gains made in the last 8 years with moderates.
-Justin Giorgio, Vice President of Strategic Communications