Just when you thought we had reached the peak of endless campaigns in America, Illinois shows we can even go further.
In the last month, we’ve seen the governor announce his reelection campaign, something which political insiders see as a staging ground for a 2028 Presidential run. The state’s comptroller announced she will not run for reelection, teeing up a showdown with the Secretary of State for the 2027 Chicago mayoral race. And more folks continue to throw their hat in the ring for U.S. Senate in 2026, including the sitting Lieutenant Governor and a member of the congressional delegation, following long-time Senator Dick Durbin’s retirement announcement
Lots of shifting and posturing, not to mention the looming prison sentence for the state’s longtime Speaker of the House, begs the question: We know who rules the roost now, but once the 2028 cycle begins, who will step up to lead?
For now, priorities for the state are clear: bring back business investment through technological innovation, prioritize renewable energy, and establish an agenda that Governor JB Pritzker can run on in 2028. Democrats in the statehouse were able to put together a budget that, while including tax increases, limited those increases to industries their opposition is less likely to vocally jump out to defend: sports betting, nicotine, and short-term rentals, to name a few.
As a result, Illinois continued to trend upward with spending, setting another record spending budget despite this being the first budget without federal COVID spending to supplement the state’s revenue stream.
It’s not all roses for budgeteers, however.
The tax increases included in this budget are already being passed on directly to the citizenry rather than the corporations they were supposed to target. Sportsbooks have imposed a $.25 per bet fee for every bettor in the state. Meanwhile, there remains a massive hole in funding for Chicago public transit, more than $770 million short of a crucial fiscal cliff. Expect legislators to attempt to address this in the fall veto session. And, as if that were not enough, Illinois pension funding remains more than $5 billion short of where actuaries say it is needed. Illinois pensions remain a looming boogeyman that legislators seem unable or unwilling to address head-on.
It seems odd to say that this state is already looking beyond 2026 when there is a Governor’s mansion and slate of statewide executive positions up for reelection this year, but the truth is, 2026 is a staging ground for 2027 and 2028. As state Democrats jockey for position and prepare for their next runs, keep an eye out for key pieces of legislation in the fall veto session to address the headline items and give candidates a platform to stake their claim on not just in 2026, but beyond. Now is the time to build a broad base to prepare for whatever the state of play in Illinois looks like in 2027 and 2028. While the makeup of the statehouse is unlikely to change this cycle, building bridges in 2025 with the key players set to fill the shoes of those looking for higher office will pay dividends in 2027, 2028, and beyond.
-Justin Giorgio, Vice President of Strategic Communications