As we prepare to say goodbye to 2025, the political theatre performance of 2026 is about to raise its curtains and fully begin across the country, and especially for the Badger State. Wisconsin is preparing for the retirement of Governor Tony Evers, who announced his intent to retire after serving as Governor since 2019 and before that as the Superintendent of Public Instruction since 2009. Now the race to succeed the Democrat Governor is ready to take off as Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany and former Democrat Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes emerge as the leading contenders for their party nominations. Wisconsin voters are facing a choice between two starkly different visions for the Badger State that will have far reaching ramifications for the Midwest and the national landscape.
Why Your Eyes Should Be On Wisconsin
Wisconsin remains one of the most critical battlegrounds in the country with a vibrant rebounding history of purple politics. Voters elected both progressive Tammy Baldwin and conservative Ron Johnson to represent them in the Senate. Governors Scott Walker and Tony Evers were both elected despite being on opposite ends of the political spectrum. As we look to the 2026 midterms, the outcome of this upcoming gubernatorial race will not only determine state-level politics, but also serve as a bellwether for the future of the region and the national political climate. For Republicans, a Tiffany victory would solidify their majority state legislature’s ability to pursue the various policies that were limited or outright impossible due to Evers’ veto pen. For Democrats, a Barnes victory would signal a continuing shift in Wisconsin away from the conservative present and instead harken back to the days of being part of the “Blue Wall”.
The Conservative Choice: Tom Tiffany
Congressman Tom Tiffany, frontrunner to be the Republican nominee, has already shared his vision for the state. From Tiffany’s campaign materials, he is taking a stance to “protect farmers” and increase attention to Wisconsin’s rural communities. This would include keeping farmland in Wisconsin (and American) hands as well as reviewing the impacts of solar and wind on agriculture and arable land. Beyond the green energy sector, data center builders will also want to pay attention to this race. Would a Tiffany administration be resistant to purchasing farm land for these centers?
Tiffany’s promise to repeal Governor Evers’ 400-year tax increase for school funding and freezing property taxes may prove to be a lucrative proposal for residential and commercial interests. Further changes from the current Evers administration would come in the shape of attempts to reduce regulations in fields like housing, childcare, and healthcare, and pushing away from social policies of neighboring states. One can easily expect that government-mandated programs like neighboring Minnesota’s Paid Family and Medical Leave would be dead on arrival under a Republican trifecta in the Badger State.
Additionally, the opportunity to return Wisconsin to a Republican-controlled legislature and executive would provide voters and pollsters alike a look into what the Presidential election may look like come 2028 if Wisconsin elects an openly Trump-aligned Governor.
The Progressive Path: Mandela Barnes
While several people are running to be the Democratic nominee, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes has repeatedly polled as the top candidate. The question is whether his chances against (expected) opponent Tom Tiffany will provide a better opportunity than Barnes’ previous challenge against Senator Johnson. As a former member of the current Evers administration, one can safely expect that a Governor Barnes would maintain Evers’ current oppositional stance to the Republican majority legislature, while pursuing policies similar to the current administration or perhaps go even further left.
As the former Chair of the Governor’s Task Force on Climate Change, this experience provides a potential look at the energy and regulatory policy of a Barnes-led administration. The Task Force’s own report from November of 2021 made recommendations to implement a goal of 100 percent green energy for state operations by 2025, far earlier than other pushes nationwide for 2050. If this were to be revived in a Governor Barnes administration, it would require extensive investment in green energy infrastructure. This would heightened green-centric regulatory burdens which would likely fall on farmers and traditional energy producers.
Barnes, who has held a longstanding relationship to progressive causes and organizations In 2019, he gave the Working Family Party’s State of the Union response in 2019, citing “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, and Jahana Hayes” as leaders in Congress who inspire him. As we look further to the upcoming presidential election in 2028, will the inspirations of the “Squad” dictate how Wisconsin will side when the scramble for the White House begins anew.
It All Comes Down To Wisconsin
The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race is a critical national bellwether that will determine whether the state returns to the “Blue Wall” under Mandela Barnes or solidifies a conservative, Trump-aligned path under Tom Tiffany. For industries, organizations, and political aficionados, this election serves as a high-stakes testing ground for policies, ranging from green energy mandates to aggressive deregulation, that are often exported to other states, in addition to dictating the political climate of the 2028 Presidential election. The outcome on November 3, 2026, may very well fundamentally reshape the landscape for agricultural land use, taxation, green energy funding, and data center development. Now is the time to lay the strategic groundwork to fight for and protect your interests in Madison before these shifting trends become a permanent national reality.
Looking to the future, what comes November 2026 will define Wisconsin’s trajectory and the national landscape for years to come and on November 7, 2028, will it all come down to Wisconsin and who holds control in Madison?
-Alex Saunders, Account Executive